| Code | 324H |
| Title | Anyone for a nuclear mousetrap: Problems of predicting technological change and their application to media digitalization |
| Author | Tim HAMLETTE |
| Affiliation | Department of Journalism, School of Communication, Hong Kong Baptist University |
| Abstract | This paper looks at the historical record of predictions of change by business and academic authorities and notes that the success rate has generally been very low. It considers the reasons generally given for this. Turning to technological change in the media the paper looks at current and recent predictions for rapid and drastic change and cautions against some recurring problems: - Over-enthusiasm for new technology - Neglect of the sociological and psychological implications of models of the future - Failure to identify accurately the motives of consumers in purchasing particular goods and services. The paper concludes by urging the importance of conservatism, common sense and respect for the way things are in framing accurate predictions of the likely scope and direction of future changes in technology and its use. |