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Better forecasts are becoming lifelines during climate change
30 Sep 2026
From recent flash floods and record-breaking heatwaves to images of glaciers melting at unprecedented rates, the signs of a warming planet are becoming impossible to ignore. A recent UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report, published in early September 2026, warned that the world is nearing a dangerous climate threshold, with global warming expected to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next few years. Against this backdrop, accurate weather prediction is all the more critical in helping communities prepare for climate-related risks.
Dr Fan Wang, Research Assistant Professor, Academy of Geography, Sociology and International Studies, has been studying rising global temperatures and their far-reaching impacts. He explains that as temperatures rise, the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere and surface evaporation both increase, elevating atmospheric water content and increasing the likelihood of extreme rainfall.
The relationship between rising temperatures, greater atmospheric moisture and extreme weather has spurred the need for more advanced forecasting tools, capable of providing earlier warnings of climate hazards, which would give governments and public agencies more time to prepare.
Turning forecasts into early action
“We identified large-scale climate patterns that can predict, months in advance, the co-occurrence of extreme heat and high-ozone days across China. These forecasts would enable agencies such as the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in China to prepare in spring for the summer heat and ozone episodes, and help the government prepare resources and implement policies to mitigate related hazards,” Dr Wang highlights.
For Dr Wang, improving air quality is not merely an environmental goal. He also sees it as a public health priority, especially for aging societies where the elderly are particularly vulnerable. Effective forecasting allows governments to alert hospitals, issue early warnings to the public, and adjust outdoor work arrangements before the worst conditions set in. Collaboration between departments is equally essential. In Hong Kong, for example, the Environmental Protection Department and Hong Kong Observatory are working together to connect weather forecasts with air quality management, turning scientific data into timely public action.
Enhancing forecast accuracy with technology
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are also changing how forecasts are made. “AI helps us create more accurate models that run faster than conventional numerical models,” Dr Wang points out. These tools are already being used to monitor and predict major climate events such as El Niño. The National Climate Centre under the China Meteorological Administration and the Hong Kong Observatory both predicted that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific would peak between November and December 2026. If so, it could become the strongest El Niño event since 1950.
From better predictions to long-term resilience
Lest weather forecasts become prophecies of doom, Dr Wang is quick to stress the fight against climate change is not a lost cause, not if governments are willing to take the lead in turning things around. “Governments can improve the accuracy of weather predictions through better data, AI tools and climate models. More resilient infrastructure must also be in place to cope with floods, heatwaves and extreme rainfall. Above all, countries must reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and shift towards clean energy sources, such as solar and wind power.” To this end, China has set ambitious climate goals, including a commitment to achieve peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
While AI-powered prediction models have significantly improved forecasting, absolute accuracy remains elusive, even for the most sophisticated systems. “Because we cannot fully replicate the planet’s actual conditions or capture the full complexity of our urban environments, uncertainties still remain,” says Dr Wang. “The research community is actively working to close this gap.”
In a warming world, climate forecasts are not just predictions; they are lifelines that help communities save lives and lessen the impacts of climate change. They may not be able to stop the planet from warming or keep El Niño from forming in the Pacific. But they can do something invaluable: give people time. Time to prepare for droughts, floods, and heatwaves before they become crises, and a precious chance to salvage what might otherwise be lost.